Dončić deal upends NBA title odds
Luka Dončić is now a Laker. The Mavs’ shocking trade for AD and a pick flipped NBA title odds, broke betting records, and had players and pundits stunned. Stephen A. was speechless.
Over the weekend, the Dallas Mavericks traded 25-year-old superstar Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers for 31-year-old big Anthony Davis and a 2029 first-round pick, in a multi-team trade that has NBA fans and players more surprised than at the end of a Knives Out movie.
The reaction: The Ringer’s Michael Pina called it the “Dumbest NBA Move I’ve Ever Seen.” Kevin Durant dubbed it “crazy.” Stephen A. Smith was at a rare loss for words.
- Dončić, who spearheaded the Mavs’ 2024 Finals run, is coming off five straight first-team All-NBA seasons, and led the league in scoring last year. He’s widely considered one of the best players in the NBA.
Why make the trade? The Mavs GM, Nico Harrison, told ESPN that "defense wins championships,” and that the move will make the team stronger overall (Dončić has been criticized for his defense, and also reportedly his conditioning).
The Mavs only spoke with the Lakers about a potential trade, according to Harrison (who’s known his LA counterpart for 20+ years) – ensuring there was only one trade war in the news this week. However, analysts say the deal may have been better for them had it been shopped around.
- The New York Knicks in July gave up five first-round draft picks as part of a deal for Mikal Bridges – a talented player, but not considered to be on the same level as Dončić.
The move shook betting markets. Before the trade, the Lakers were +4000 to win the 2025 NBA Finals and +2500 to win the Western Conference, according to ESPN BET. As of this writing, those odds have shortened to +1600 (sixth-best in the league) and +850, respectively.
Betting volume on the Lakers has also increased. On Sunday, the day after the trade, ESPN BET took the highest number of total bets in the NBA champion market for any single day since the season started.
- Between midnight and 11 am ET Sunday, the Lakers received 46.6% of all bets and 65.2% of all handle to win this season's title at the sportsbook.
- BetMGM places those numbers at 64% and 57%, respectively, and says Los Angeles is its largest liability for the Western Conference title.
In other NBA trade news…De'Aaron Fox is headed to the Spurs and Zach LaVine is headed to the Kings in a three-team deal. See the latest trade deadline updates here.
