The NIL era is reshaping the NBA Draft
The NIL era has turned college basketball into a safer bet than the second round of the NBA Draft. With fewer prospects declaring, front offices are adjusting to a shrinking talent pool—and players are doing the math.
Round 2 of the NBA Draft takes place tonight. And when the clock starts ticking, NBA front offices will find themselves with pickings more slim than a buffet after Kobayashi rolls through.
This is largely due to the advent of the NIL era in college basketball, which—while it hasn’t whittled the draft pool to nil—has made quite a dent.
- Only 106 players entered the draft this year, according to the league, marking the lowest number of early entrants since 2015. The number of early draft entrants peaked in 2021, at 353, months before the NIL era went into effect.
- Of those 106, only 46 remain following the withdrawal deadlines. That’s down from 77 in 2024, and well below the average of 83.8 seen from 2016-19.
It’s a risk-assessment thing
Front-office execs, agents, and college coaches say the rise in withdrawals is a result of players projected to go late in the first round or somewhere in the second round sitting down and crunching numbers Ben Affleck in The Accountant-style.
- The NBA’s 2024-2025 rookie scale stipulates that a player going midway through the first round would make ~$3.5M in first-year salary. That figure drops to ~$2.8M at pick #20, ~$2.3M at #25, and ~$2.1M at #30 (the final first-round pick).
- There is no slot money for second-rounders, who can sign for any amount. The minimum first-year NBA salary is ~$1.2M, while G League players make a flat $40.5k/season.
That’s compared to college NIL money, which can reach into the seven-figures for many projected late-first-round or second-round picks. “[It’s] just…pure mathematics," Detroit Pistons president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon told Fox Sports.
Pickings are slim elsewhere, too. The NFL had just 69 underclassmen in its draft this year, down from 128 in 2021, the final pre-NIL draft.
But…This staying-in-school trend may soon change. The recent approval of the House v. NCAA settlement brings revenue sharing to college athletics, and could lead to caps on NIL deals.
