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The Mahomes-era Chiefs receive favorable calls in the playoffs, new study suggests

Many people claim that NFL officiating is rigged to favor certain teams—especially those with a rabid, Swiftie-infused fanbase.

But new research indicates there may be some merit to those claims, at least when it comes to the NFL playoffs.

The paper in question, titled “Under (Financial) Pressure,” was published in The Financial Review late last month by a trio of university professors.

• Researchers examined 13,136 defensive penalty calls from the 2015–2023 NFL regular seasons and playoffs, with a specific focus on “dynasty” teams that reached the Super Bowl at least twice during that time (like the Mahomes-era Chiefs and Brady-era Patriots).
• They used a fixed-effect panel regression model to estimate the difference in total penalty yards, penalties that awarded a first-down, and subjective calls—like pass interference, roughing the passer, defensive holding, etc.—awarded to the dynastic team relative to the rest of the league, and how that changes when the postseason rolls around.

What they found

The researchers’ data showed that the Mahomes-era Chiefs—starting in 2018—consistently drew more defensive penalties compared to league average, (👆) which was a typical pattern among the other high-performing NFL teams in the study.

But where the Chiefs stand out from the rest of the pack is when analyzing the difference between referee decisions in the regular season, and those in the playoffs. 

In regular season games, defensive penalties against Kansas City:

• Resulted in 2.02 fewer yards on average compared to the rest of the NFL (league avg: 9.54 yards) 
• Were 8 percentage points less likely to result in a first down (league avg: 80%)
• Were 7 percentage points less likely to be a subjective call (league avg: 70%)

But when the playoffs came around, the Chiefs’ reffing situation turned around faster than Saquon Barkley preparing to hurdle a defender. Defensive penalties on KC in the postseason: 

• Yielded 2.36 more yards on average compared to the rest of the NFL
• Were 23 percentage points more likely to result in a first down
• Were 28 percentage points more likely to have come from a subjective call

What about other recent dynasties? The researchers found “no comparable postseason effect for the Brady-era Patriots, the Alex Smith/Andy Reid-era Chiefs, or other recent contenders such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, or San Francisco 49ers.”

A potential explanation

According to the study, the postseason effect for the Mahomes-era Chiefs is driven entirely by referees with prior playoff exposure to the team—suggesting that playoff-caliber officials who are trusted with high-leverage games adjust their decision-making in ways that may reflect league priorities.

And why would the NFL want to prioritize the Chiefs? It’s simple, the study says: they attract more eyeballs, which equals more advertising money.

• Researchers found Chiefs games once Mahomes became the starting QB are associated with ~3.87M more viewers/game when compared to the rest of the NFL.
• For context, the NFL averaged ~16M viewers/game during the study’s sample period.

Bottom line: While the study doesn’t conclusively prove any NFL bias towards the Chiefs, it suggests that officiating in their playoff games may be influenced by league-driven financial interests rather than solely on-field performance.

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